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Advanced Agile Metrics, Forecasting & Predictability

A 2-day workshop

“When will it be done?” “How many items will I get in the next release?” “When will all of the items in the backlog be completed?”

Those are some of the first questions that your customers will ask you once you start work for them. This hands-on workshop provides you with the tools you need to answer those questions predictably. In this tutorial, attendees will learn what metrics are necessary for accurate forecasting, how to visualize those metrics in appropriate analytics, how to use those analytics make reliable forecasts and understand risk, and, finally, how to make meaningful interventions for overall process improvement.​​

In this class we will use ActionableAgile to understand and manipulate the data. However, the concepts taught in class are tool-agnostic and can be applied whether or not you have this software.

Learning Outcomes

  • An understanding of what Lean-Agile metrics are necessary for predictability.

  • An ability to make accurate forecasts for single items including how to forecast when an individual story, epic, or feature will be done.

  • An ability to make accurate forecasts for multiple items including how to know when all items remaining in a backlog will be done or an ability to project how many items will be completed by a given release date and the risks associated with each.

  • An understanding of how to use flow metrics and analytics to achieve a stable process including an understanding of why a stable process is necessary for accurate forecasting.

Topic Areas

  • Flow Metrics: a deep dive into WIP, Cycle Time, and Throughput—including why you need to track them, how they are related through Little’s Law, and why they are important for forecasting.

  • Flow Analytics: an introduction to Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs), Scatterplots, Histograms, and other supporting charts—including a detailed discussion of what they are, how to generate them correctly, and how to utilize them for better predictability.

  • Forecasting Using Monte Carlo Simulation: how to use flow metrics to answer “When will it be done?”—including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation and statistical sampling methods for forecasting (no advanced mathematics required!).

  • Quantifying Risk and Risk Management: how an understanding of risk is crucial to developing accurate forecasts—including how to quantify risk in the different analytics’ charts and how changing forecast inputs can help to develop an overall risk profile.

  • How to Get Started: how to immediately apply these techniques to your current project or process to achieve the results you are looking for—including what data to collect, how to mine your data, and how much data you need to begin.

This workshop will be split into the following parts with several hands-on exercises throughout.

Day One – The Basics of Forecasting

  • What is Predictability?

  • What Data Should We Collect?

  • Forecasts for Single Items Using Cycle Time

    • What is Cycle Time and Why It Is Important

    • Traditional Single Item Forecasting Techniques and Why They Fail

    • Cycle Time Scatterplots and Forecasting

    • How to Quantify Single Item Forecast Risk (Percentiles and SLAs)

    • Improving Your Single Item Forecasts

  • Forecasts for Multiple Items Using Throughput and Monte Carlo Simulation

    • What is Throughput and Why It Is Important

    • Traditional Multiple Item Forecasting Techniques and Why They Fail

    • Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistical Sampling Methods

    • How to Answer “How Many Items by X date?”

    • How to Answer “How Long to Complete Y Number of Items?”

    • How to Quantify Multiple Item Forecast Risk

    • Improving Your Multiple Item Forecasts

  • How to Know If You Can Trust Your Forecasts

    • Work in Progress and Little’s Law

    • Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs)

Day Two – Advanced Topics in Predictability

  • CFDs and System Stability

  • Pull Policies

  • Little’s Law Deep Dive

  • Flow Debt

  • How Do I Know When Something Should Start?​

  • How to Get Started

  • Things to Watch Out For

  • Parking Lot / Q & A

Other Key Information

  • Certification: None.

  • Language: English

  • Payment Method: Invoice (contact us if you require an alternate method)

  • In addition to 2 days of awesome learning, you also get:​​

    • Free copy of "Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability" and "When Will It Be Done?" ebooks by Daniel Vacanti​

    • Access to the 55 Degrees Newsletter & Slack channel

    • A 20% discount on future courses

The Trainers

Your class will be taught by one or more of the following trainers.

Julia Wester

Julia is a co-founder of 55 Degrees AB and Lean/Agile practice manager. She loves teaching about Kanban, Scrum, Metrics, and anything else that helps teams figure out how to do more with less stress!

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Daniel Vacanti

Dan is a world-renowned expert in Agile Metrics and Forecasting as well as a co-creator of the Kanban Method. He has authored books on agile forecasting and predictability and created software to make it easy!

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