Agile Forecasting: Leading to Better Outcomes

55 Degrees
4 days ago
3 min read

Evidence-Based Management: How Agile Forecasting and EBM Lead to Better Outcomes

Evidence-Based Management (EBM) is a framework that helps organizations make smarter, more informed decisions by using empirical data to evaluate and improve performance. Developed by the creators of Scrum, EBM pairs seamlessly with agile practices, helping teams measure value delivery through Key Value Areas such as Current Value, Time-to-Market, and Unrealized Value. It ensures that decisions are grounded in evidence rather than assumptions.

By continuously inspecting and adapting, EBM enables incremental improvements, allowing teams to deliver measurable outcomes that align with business goals.

EBM ties into Agile Forecasting by providing a framework for using empirical data to guide decision-making, measure progress, and forecast outcomes. EBM focuses on outcomes and the evidence of value delivered, making it a natural complement to Agile Forecasting, which uses data and probabilistic methods to predict future performance.

How Agile Forecasting and EBM Work Together

EBM ties directly into Agile Forecasting by providing a framework for using data to guide decisions, measure progress, and forecast outcomes. EBM focuses on the evidence of value delivered, while Agile Forecasting, powered by tools like ActionableAgile® Analytics, uses flow metrics and probabilistic methods to predict future performance with greater accuracy and transparency.

Here’s how the two approaches align:

1. Focusing on Value Delivery

EBM emphasizes maximizing value rather than focusing solely on outputs. Agile Forecasting complements this by helping teams predict when and how much value they can deliver based on real historical data.

For instance, with ActionableAgile® Analytics, teams can:

Use Throughput forecasting to estimate how many high-value features will be completed by a target date.

Run Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the likelihood of delivering a prioritized set of features within a specific timeframe, ensuring alignment between delivery and strategic business goals.

2. Data-Driven Decision Making

EBM relies on empirical evidence, using Key Value Areas such as Current Value, Time-to-Market, and Unrealized Value, to support informed decision-making. Similarly, Agile Forecasting uses historical data, such as Throughput and Cycle Time, to make accurate predictions about future performance.

This shared reliance on data ensures that:

Teams can prioritize work that maximizes value and deliver features faster to meet customer needs.

Forecasting provides clear estimates of Time-to-Market for specific features or product increments, helping stakeholders understand delivery timelines and plan with greater confidence.

3. Continuous Improvement through Metrics

Both EBM and Agile Forecasting thrive on continuous feedback loops.

Agile Forecasting uses key flow metrics (Cycle time, WIP, Throughput) to refine predictions and identify improvement opportunities.

EBM integrates these metrics into broader Key Value Areas, helping organizations evaluate how process changes impact business outcomes, such as reducing delays (Time-to-Market) or increasing stakeholder satisfaction (Current Value).

This creates a data-informed culture where progress is visible, measurable, and continuously improving.

4. Risk Management

In EBM, understanding risks is essential for managing Unrealized Value, the gap between potential and actual value delivered.

Agile Forecasting, especially when powered by ActionableAgile® Analytics, enhances risk management by providing probabilistic forecasts that reveal the likelihood of meeting specific delivery targets, enabling teams to plan for variability and uncertainty.

It also helps surface bottlenecks and inefficiencies in delivery processes through flow metrics, allowing teams to identify where delays could threaten value delivery.

5. Transparency and Stakeholder Confidence

EBM encourages transparency by using metrics to communicate progress and value delivery. Agile Forecasting supports this by:

Providing clear, data-driven forecasts that help stakeholders make informed decisions with confidence.

Demonstrating probabilities and scenarios (e.g., “There’s an 85% chance of delivering 15 features by the end of the quarter”) to set realistic expectations and foster trust between teams and stakeholders. These kinds of insights are easily visualized through ActionableAgile® Analytics.

Better Together: Turning Data into Decisions

When organizations combine EBM’s focus on measurable value with Agile Forecasting’s probabilistic insights, they unlock a new level of predictability and alignment.

Together, these practices enable teams to:

Improve predictability while maintaining agility and flexibility.

Align team efforts with strategic goals.

Use real-world data to guide decisions, reduce uncertainty, and deliver incremental value continuously.

This partnership between Leading EDJE and 55 Degrees highlights how EBM and Agile Forecasting can work hand in hand to build truly data-driven organizations, where teams deliver the right value at the right time.