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The Ongoing Battle of Agile vs Waterfall Agile teams often face challenges in predicting project timelines and delivery dates due to the framework's inherent flexibility, which prioritizes adaptability over rigid schedules. While this approach aligns with Agile principles, most IT departments operate within yearly budgets that require some level of forecasting to understand when funded initiatives are to be completed. But scoping out an entire year’s worth of work is not only inefficient but also counterproductive to Agile’s iterative nature. Traditional approaches, such as deterministic forecasting (forecasting to a single date) commonly used in waterfall methodologies, attempt to map out the entire scope, timeline, and resource allocation for a project upfront. However, this assumes that requirements, priorities, and team performance will remain static Throughout the project lifecycle, a notion that rarely aligns with the realities of modern software development. When unexpected changes arise (e.g., shifting priorities, evolving customer needs, or unforeseen technical challenges), deterministic plans become obsolete, leading to missed deadlines, mismanagement, and stakeholder frustration. So, what's a team to do when they are stuck in this conundrum? How can teams forecast work enough to satisfy the planning and budgetary needs of most IT departments while staying nimble enough to produce high-quality, useful software features? This is where Agile Forecasting using Flow Metrics and Monte Carlo Simulation comes in handy. A Smarter Way to Forecast In contrast to more rigid waterfall planning, predictive approaches like Agile Forecasting are better suited for today’s dynamic software development environment. By leveraging historical data and probabilistic models, Agile Forecasting embraces variability and uncertainty, allowing teams to provide a realistic range of outcomes associated with a probability of success, rather than a fixed, single date that often results in unrealistic predictions. Techniques like Monte Carlo Simulations and flow metrics help teams forecast delivery timelines and Throughput with greater accuracy, enabling more informed decision-making and proactive risk management. Agile Forecasting bridges the gap between the adaptability of Agile and the need for predictability in IT planning. It empowers teams to achieve realistic goals without compromising flexibility, delivering value iteratively while meeting business expectations. In this post, we’ll delve into how Agile Forecasting, powered by tools like Monte Carlo Simulations and flow metrics, can revolutionize the way teams plan, execute, and deliver their work. The Case for Agile Forecasting Agile forecasting is a method used to predict how much work a team can complete within a given timeframe by leveraging historical data and current performance metrics. Unlike deterministic approaches, such as the upfront, rigid project planning typical of the waterfall methodology, it embraces variability and applies probabilistic thinking to deliver a more accurate range of potential outcomes. By adopting agile forecasting, teams can: Set achievable goals: Use historical data and flow metrics to make realistic predictions about what the team can complete. Manage risks effectively: Leverage probabilistic forecasting to account for variability and visualize bottlenecks with Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFD) and flow metrics. Use Monte Carlo Simulations to create contingency plans and apply Work in Progress (WIP) limits to reduce Cycle Times. Improve stakeholder confidence in delivery timelines: Provide data-driven forecasts using Monte Carlo Simulations and refine them continuously with updated metrics. Flow Metrics: The Foundation of Agile Forecasting Flow metrics are essential for understanding how efficiently work moves through a development process. The key metrics include: Cycle Time : The time it takes for a work item to move from start to finish. Work in Progress (WIP) : The number of active items being worked on. Throughput : The number of items completed in a given time period. Work Item Age : The elapsed time since work on an item started. Applying Flow Metrics in Practice: Sprint Planning: Use throughput to determine how much work to pull into a sprint, moving away from deterministic velocity metrics. Retrospectives: Analyze Cycle Time scatterplots to identify patterns or outliers and improve processes. WIP Limits: Leverage Little’s Law (a principle linking WIP, Throughput, and Cycle Time) to understand how limiting WIP improves Cycle Time and overall flow efficiency. Monte Carlo Simulations: A Powerful Tool for Forecasting Monte Carlo Simulations (MCS) is a computational algorithm that uses repeated random sampling to generate probabilities for a range of outcomes. In agile forecasting, MCS helps answer critical questions: How many items can we close by a target date? When will a specific number of items be completed? How many items can we close by a target date? This question is answered by running simulations using historical Throughput data (e.g., the average number of items completed per sprint). By analyzing this data, the simulation generates a probability distribution that predicts how many items are likely to be completed by a specific date. For example, the output might indicate there is an 85% chance of completing 20 items, or 70% chance of completing 25 items, by the end of the next sprint. This insight helps teams set realistic expectations and manage scope effectively within a defined timeframe. When will a specific number of items be completed? To answer this, the simulation uses the same historical Throughput or Cycle Time data to estimate the range of dates by which a set number of items can be delivered. The result is expressed as probabilities, such as a 90% likelihood of completing 30 items within 25 days. This information is particularly valuable for fixed-scope projects, where knowing the approximate completion date is critical for planning and stakeholder communication. Monte Carlo Simulations in Action with ActionableAgile® Analytics Monte Carlo Simulations can be run using general analytics tools, but those often require extra setup and manual work. ActionableAgile® Analytics streamlines the process, making forecasting faster and easier. It automatically collects your historical Throughput and Cycle Time data from Jira (or Azure DevOps) and runs thousands of simulations in seconds, delivering clear, visual probability forecasts without the need for complex setup. With  ActionableAgile® Analytics , teams can: Instantly generate probability charts showing the likelihood of hitting specific delivery targets. Visualize forecasts alongside real-time flow metrics such as WIP, Throughput, and Cycle Time for a complete picture of performance. Adjust variables dynamically to explore  what-if scenarios  and assess how changes in WIP, scope, or team Throughput might affect outcomes. This blend of empirical data and simulation-based forecasting gives teams and stakeholders the confidence to plan realistically, manage risk proactively, and adapt without losing predictability. How It Works Gather Historical Data:  Collect Throughput or Cycle Time data (e.g., completed tasks per sprint). Even a few weeks’ worth of data is enough to start. Run Simulations:  Use this data to simulate thousands of possible outcomes, accounting for variability and uncertainty. Generate Probabilities:  Calculate the likelihood of achieving specific delivery goals, instantly visualized through tools like  ActionableAgile® Analytics . For example, an MCS might show there’s an 85% chance of completing 20 items in the next sprint. This approach is especially useful for fixed-scope or fixed-date projects, providing actionable insights into what’s achievable. Continuous Improvement with Agile Forecasting Agile Forecasting isn’t a one-time activity. It’s a continuous cycle of inspection, adaptation, and learning. By regularly analyzing flow metrics and leveraging probabilistic tools like  Monte Carlo Simulations  through  ActionableAgile® Analytics , teams can refine their workflows, improve predictability, and deliver value more consistently. Tools and Resources to Get Started Ebook: If you'd like a deeper dive into getting started with Flow Metrics, you can download the free ebook. Ready to get started and understand flow metrics? If you’ve been curious about Flow Metrics but unsure where to start, this guide breaks it down in a straightforward, human way. No jargon. No complexity. Just practical steps toward more predictable delivery. Books: When will it be done by Daniel Vacanti and Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability : Tenth Anniversary Edition by Daniel Vacanti Tools:   ActionableAgile® Analytics By adopting these techniques and tools, your team can shift from guesswork to reliable, evidence-based forecasting, delivering work with confidence, clarity, and predictability. This article is part of a collaboration between 55 Degrees and Leading EDJ E , combining expertise in agile forecasting and evidence-based management to help teams plan smarter and deliver value predictably.

Struggling to trust your delivery dates? If you’ve ever struggled to explain flow metrics, get buy-in from leadership, or simply make delivery more predictable, this guide is for you. We partnered with innovative technology leader, Leading EDJE  to produce a clear, conversational, and practical introduction to Flow Metrics. Perfect for teams taking their first step into data-driven delivery. This free resource breaks down the fundamentals, shows how to get started without changing your entire process, and gives you real-world examples you can take straight into your organization. What You’ll Learn What flow metrics are and how they differ from traditional estimation The four core metrics to start with: WIP, Cycle Time, Work Item Age, and Throughput How to introduce flow metrics without disrupting your current process How to build a simple business case for leadership Common challenges teams face and how to overcome them "Using Flow Metrics and Probabilistic Forecasting gave me the clarity I needed as a Product Manager to understand delivery dates and actual risk. It took the guesswork out of the equation and made my conversations with stakeholders much more realistic and productive" Product Manager - David's Bridal Ready to get started and understand flow metrics? If you’ve been curious about Flow Metrics but unsure where to start, this guide breaks it down in a straightforward, human way. No jargon. No complexity. Just practical steps toward more predictable delivery.

If you’re tracking OKRs solely with Jira’s built-in reports, you’re steering your team using outdated snapshots rather than real-time insights. Jira may display metrics, but it lacks the tools necessary to identify what’s slowing progress, where tasks stall, or whether you’re truly on track to meet your goals. Without answers to these questions, you’re left reacting to issues rather than proactively addressing them. To stop navigating with outdated data, you need tools specifically designed to work with OKRs. With Oboard and ActionableAgile® Analytics, you can move from passive tracking to proactive execution. In other words, you get to fix issues before they derail your goals. And yes, Jira offers free reports, such as Control Charts and Cumulative Flow Diagrams (CFDs). And you might think that they are enough. But let’s be honest — do they tell you what you need to know? Four Things Jira Won’t Tell You Are we on track to meet our key results? What’s slowing us down? Where are work items piling up? If we continue at this pace, will we succeed? If you’re serious about hitting your OKRs, you need answers to these questions. And Jira won’t tell you any of this. At its absolute best, it will provide you with circumstantial data from which you can extrapolate the real answers, but this takes time and a lot of trial and error to see it properly. With the effort and time it takes to parse the free Jira reports, you will still be reacting to problems instead of preventing them.  How Oboard and ActionableAgile® Analytics Connect Strategy to Work OKR Board for Jira helps teams define and track OKRs within Jira, ensuring clear alignment between strategy and execution. It provides easy-to-use tools for OKR tracking and management, along with customizable, real-time OKR reports ActionableAgile® Analytics is a powerful flow metrics tool that helps teams track work progress, spot bottlenecks, and improve predictability — all within Jira. With insights into Cycle Time, Throughput, Aging Work in Progress (WIP), and Monte Carlo Simulations, teams can move beyond gut feeling and make data-driven decisions about delivery speed and efficiency. By using ActionableAgile® alongside Oboard, teams can bridge the gap between strategy (OKRs) and execution (flow metrics), ensuring they don’t just set goals — they achieve them. Key Flow Metrics That Help Tech Teams Achieve OKRs Tech teams using Jira often set OKRs around efficiency, speed, and stability. To emphasize those qualities, we recommend you to focus on the flow metrics, such as: Cycle Time – Tracks how long issues take to move from “In Progress” to “Done,” helping teams identify bottlenecks in Jira workflows and optimize handoffs. Throughput – Measures completed Jira issues over a set period, ensuring teams can track delivery rates and adjust sprint or release goals accordingly. Aging Work in Progress (Aging WIP) – Identifies stalled tasks in Jira boards, highlighting risks before they impact OKRs tied to lead time or efficiency. (Bonus Tip) Monte Carlo Simulations – Forecasts OKR success by predicting feature delivery dates based on historical Jira data, helping teams set realistic deadlines. These metrics will provide you with the clarity that Jira alone cannot. For example, if an Engineering team’s OKR is “ Reduce deployment lead time by 20% ,” flow metrics show where the slowdowns occur. If Aging WIP is high, it signals that tasks are getting stuck. If Cycle Time isn’t improving, teams can identify process bottlenecks and improve efficiency. Real-World Examples of Flow Metrics for Tech Team OKRs When it comes to improving how your tech team works, OKRs are just the start — flow metrics reveal why things slow down and where adjustments are needed. Below are real-world examples of how DevOps and Scrum teams use metrics like Cycle Time, Aging WIP, and Throughput to turn objectives into action and challenges into insights. OKR: Improve Software Stability & Reliability A DevOps team using Jira has the following OKR: [O] Improve stability by accelerating issue resolution and reducing system failures. [KR1] Reduce the number of unresolved critical incidents in Jira by 20%. [KR2] Decrease mean time to resolution (MTTR) for performance-related issues by 30%. They can use the following Agile Flow Metrics to see the actual challenges behind it: Cycle Time for bug and performance fixes measures how long it takes for Jira issues to be resolved from detection to resolution, identifying potential delays. Throughput of resolved incidents ensures the team completes fixes at a sustainable rate to meet the OKR. Aging WIP highlights bottlenecks by identifying Jira issues that have been in progress for too long without being completed. Example in Action The Engineering team analyzes Cycle Time trends and sees that critical incidents take an average of 20 days to resolve, with 4 days spent in triage before work begins. This insight sparks discussions on reducing triage time and optimizing handoffs, leading to actions that shorten resolution times and help achieve the OKR. OKR: Improve Deployment Speed & Predictability (Scrum Team Focused) A Scrum team working in Jira set the following OKR: [O] Improve delivery speed and predictability; [KR1] Increase the number of completed and deployed features per sprint by 25%; [KR2] Ensure 90% of committed backlog items are delivered within the sprint. To uncover what’s slowing them down, they rely on these Agile Flow Metrics: Cycle Time for feature development indicates where delays occur throughout the sprint workflow. Throughput of completed stories tracks how consistently the team delivers value. Monte Carlo Simulations forecast sprint completion likelihood and help manage delivery expectations. Example in Action The team notices that P1 bugs often fail to meet SLA deadlines. A closer look at Cycle Time reveals that these bugs remain in the “Pending Release” state for up to 20+ days. That insight triggers improvements in prioritization, Jira automations for fast-tracking critical bugs, and a new escalation process. The result? Faster resolutions, happier customers, and an OKR achieved. Conclusion Setting OKRs is the easy part. Making them happen? That’s where most teams struggle. Oboard provides the structure to align strategy within Jira. ActionableAgile shows you how work is flowing — or not. Used together, they help teams stop guessing, start seeing, and take action where it matters. Because hitting your goals shouldn’t be about scrambling at the end of the quarter — it should be about knowing, early and often, whether you’re on track. Curious what that looks like in practice? Try combining Oboard and ActionableAgile®—and start closing the gap between ambition and delivery. About Oboard https://oboard.io/ is an Atlassian Marketplace app that helps teams set, track, and achieve OKRs directly in Jira. By connecting strategic goals to daily work, Oboard provides the structure teams need to stay aligned and focused on what matters most. This post was created in close collaboration with Margo Sakova, Marketing Manager at Oboard.

Inspekt allows Jira users to access hard to reach data from issues history to understand how workflows are used, see on issue's time and frequency in status, and how much time issues spend waiting, and more! See how work really moves through your workflow The Workflow Usage Patterns Report helps you understand how people use your workflow by showing you where issues go next when they leave any workflow status. Use this information to streamline workflows or educate users! Inspect your workflow. Take data-driven action Allow Jira users to access hard-to-reach data from issue history to understand how workflows are used, see an issue's time and frequency in status, and how much time issues spend waiting, and more! How Inspekt can help Let the issue data show you where work gets stuck The Raw Workflow Data Report shows when an issue moves into a status, how long it stays there, how often it goes there, and how many assignees it has had. You can view this in Jira or export it to run your own reports! See where idle time is hurting your productivity Our project-level Flow Efficiency report shows the percentage of time issues are being actively worked. See data overall, by priority, by issue type, and more. See low numbers? Look for opportunities to reduce idle time. Purchasing Options Start your free trial Inspekt is exclusively available as an app that embeds directly in your Jira Cloud. Every Jira user is automatically licensed! Try Inspekt for free for at least 30 days! 55 Degrees is a Gold Atlassian Marketplace Partner. Inspekt for Jira participates in Atlassian's security programs and is Cloud Fortified

An important part of living up to our values is our commitment to data privacy and security throughout all aspects of our organization. Learn more about how we do this. Trust Center A culture based on security and privacy An important part of living up to our values is our commitment to data privacy and security throughout all aspects of our organization. We don't take a single step without ensuring we've taken all reasonable steps to protect your data and privacy. Protect customer and personal data at all times Comply with applicable privacy regulations Avoid processing or storing unneeded data Compliance Certifications and Standards ISO 27001 Certified SOC 2 Type II Compliant GDPR Compliant DORA In Progress Atlassian Security Programs Certified Our Security Partners Resources SECURITY PRACTICES Learn more about our overall product security and operations measures. SECURITY ADVISORIES See how we handle vulnerabilities and read current and past advisories. FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS Have a question that's not answered here? Check out our FAQ! SUPPLIERS & SUBPROCESSORS See our subprocessors. Learn which data they process and when. PRODUCT-SPECIFIC SECURITY Learn more about how we handle data security in specific products. NEED MORE DETAILS? Our automated trust portal, hosted by Vanta, allows you to see real-time lists of our monitored technical and operational measures and to access selected internal policies. Want to see sensitive files like our SOC 2 Type II report? Click on the item to request access to start the NDA process. Download files at the Trust Center

Improve Flow. Be Predictable. Understand how work really moves through your process so you can ask the right questions, drive meaningful improvement, and accurately forecast outcomes in uncertain situations. Try it for free Overview Pricing Roadmap FAQ Training Cycle Time Scatterplot Set Service Level Expectations (SLEs) By looking at how quickly you finish work in the past, you can understand how long it may to take you to complete future work. SLEs help the team know what they are capable of! Aging Work in Progress Chart Secret weapon to improve predictability. Know exactly how old your current work is and compare it to past data for context. Begin to control aging and maintain or improve your current level of predictability. Monte Carlo Simulations Forecast in uncertainty with probabilities Our Monte Carlo simulations help you get an idea of how likely any forecast is for any set of work. We use the variation in your historical data to run more than 10,000 trials! We have simulations for both fixed dates and fixed scope. Free Trial Try ActionableAgile® Analytics for free. All free trials are 30 days or more! Compare features by version Standalone SaaS Import your data from Jira, Trello using our built-in wizards, or any external app via file upload Start your free trial Embedded in Jira Get the power of ActionableAgile without leaving Jira. Available for Cloud, Server and Data Center Start your free trial Embedded in Azure Analyze flow directly in Azure DevOps Cloud. For single users or whole organizations Start your free trial Don't take our word for it, listen to our customers ActionableAgile helped us improve our ability to anticipate delivery outcomes by using probabilistic forecasting and flow metrics. Our throughput almost doubled, and the team got better at splitting and sizing work into meaningful, valuable chunks. Our cycle times were reduced by almost 50% or more for 85% of our completed work items. Our WIP significantly reduced, so we had teams that were not overwhelmed or overburdened. As a result, we reduced context switching and enabled the teams to experiment with pairing and swarming to get things done. Haroon Khalil , Executive Agility Coach By regularly forecasting with ActionableAgile, we could clearly show when circumstances impacted our delivery timescales; previously, these would have been recognized as affecting our delivery. Monte Carlo simulation's what-if scenario planning function has enabled us to discuss what is happening and if trends are changing with stakeholders and teams. This allowed us to take meaningful action at the soonest possible opportunity and put the decisions with the right people. Julie Starling , Agile Delivery CoP Manager Get all the latest news about ActionableAgile® Analytics! Subscribe and receive monthly emails tailored especially for ActionableAgile® Analytics users. Get news on recent releases, upcoming events, and more! Manage Subscriptions Got Questions? We've Got Answers! Frequently asked questions DC Customers General ActionableAgile Analytics Inspekt Portfolio Forecaster Klar Short-form Chat Dialog questions Partners Will ActionableAgile® Analytics continue to support Jira Data Center? Yes. We will continue supporting Jira Data Center customers throughout Atlassian’s end-of-life timeline. Core updates such as charts, insights, and calculations will still be delivered. Why won’t all new features come to Data Center? Some features require extensive development and testing that are specific to the Data Center platform. With Atlassian planning to sunset Jira DC, it’s important for us to focus resources on updates that bring the greatest long-term value to customers across platforms. Which types of features are affected? Platform-dependent updates — such as native Jira dashboard gadgets or certain integrations with Jira internals — may not be delivered to Data Center. Instead, we’re prioritizing improvements to the ActionableAgile® Analytics experience itself, which will benefit both Data Center and Cloud users. What new improvements can I expect on Data Center? You will still see enhancements including: A new app landing page Data set views for easier navigation Consistent chart templates Expanded chart insights What if my team plans to move to Jira Cloud later? We will be ready to support you with a smooth transition when that time comes. ActionableAgile® Analytics for Jira Cloud includes the same core capabilities and ongoing innovation. Our dedicated support team is always ready to assist you. Empower yourself with knowledge and make the most of your experience with us!